The main issue with this question is the fact that "act of war" is not a legal term. Change it to something that exists in international treaties, and the whole stupid flamewar below will have no reason to exist.

In case anyone is confused by that, er, interesting thread, I'm going to summarise my thoughts here:

• I think option 1 is possible and should absolutely not be ruled out yet. I just don't see why it should resolve YES right now when even the injured party is yet to declare it an act of war (as far as I'm aware)

• Options 2, 3 and 4 seem the most plausible to me, for reasons I've already explained

• I agree with the market that options 5, 6 and 7 seem extremely unlikely

@a_l_e_x the question of "intent to commit an act of war" is nonsensical. Russia intentionally sent attack drones into Poland, which is unambiguously an act of war.

@a_l_e_x it's like if you were to throw molotov cocktails on your neighbor's house and then attempt to claim that it wasn't an intentional act of arson.

@Dulaman I get your point here and acknowledge I could've designed the market better. I was trying to capture the distinction between an attack that could only be the first shot in a war and a violation that may theoretically be an act of war but realistically isn't going to lead to one. In hindsight I could've done that differently or not at all

@a_l_e_x if you want to keep it honest then you should N/A this and create a new one

@Dulaman I don’t think that is necessary. The details are still being investigated and I’d imagine Article 5 would be triggered if the event is interpreted as an “armed attack.” NATO/Poland may conclude that it was only a “violation of sovereignty” and decide against invoking Article 5. I think that determination would be a good proxy for deciding whether this was an act of war.

@Dulaman N/A is a bit extreme. I'll take your comment on board and if there's a consensus that this market is unworkable, I'll definitely consider voiding it. (Personally, I don't think it is, but obviously I would say that.)

In the meantime, if you believe the market is flawed, you are free to not participate in it and even create your own market if you wish

@Dulaman In addition to what the other replies said, there's a huge gulf between "Russia is trying to start a war with Poland" and "Russia is trying to provoke NATO without starting an outright war". For me at least this distinction has a much bigger impact on my life than the drones getting shot down to begin with. The market has the issue of being subjective, but I think it was clear this would be the case from the start, so all the traders should know this before participating

@Dulaman Russia has been intruding into NATO space with planes and subs for years. Those were armed which isn't clear with these drones yet. Do you think all those incursions were acts of war?

Sending attack drones into another country is an act of war

Russia can conduct a deliberate act of war without announcing it as such, you dingus. Sending drones into a foreign country is an actor of war against that country.

@Lorelai is this directed at me?

If so, I don't dispute your first point at all. Russia declaring that this was a deliberate act of war is sufficient but not necessary to resolve the first option YES. I thought this was implied by my clarification but I'm happy to clarify again.

But if you're suggesting that it can only have been a deliberate act of war, I don't think there is enough evidence to be sure of that yet. You are welcome to present some if you wish, and I will give it due consideration. Or, if you think I'm a dingus, you are also welcome to divest from my market and go on with your day.

@a_l_e_x do you know what a shahed drone is? It's basically a missile.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136

19 of them is not an accident. You are either a dingus or deliberately furthering russian propaganda claims.

@Lorelai Were they aimed at Polish targets, or did they turn back towards targets in Ukraine?

@Chumchulum they entered Poland, 19 kamikaze drones entered Poland. If you think that is a mistake, you are not a smart person.

@Lorelai I am not sure how my question indicates stupidity.

@Lorelai From your graphic, it appears some went on towards Lublin while the rest turned back towards Ukraine. Were the drones flying towards Lublin aimed at Polish targets, or did they too turn back?

I'm sure we must agree on the meaning of "aimed."

@Lorelai I agree that ~20 drones is unlikely to be an accident. Pending more information, though, I'm not convinced that it's implausible. It is less than 5% of the total number of drones deployed in the attack (although, in my opinion, ~5% is still significant and shouldn't be underestimated). But as you know, this market is not a binary choice between 'act of war' and 'complete accident' anyway.

Tell me, did Ukraine commit an act of war against Estonia the other week when one of its drones crashed into a field there? Of course not. The drone was likely diverted by Russian GPS jamming. Ukraine uses similar technology to disorient Russian drones. Of course, I wouldn't draw a full equivalence between the two incidents – nor am I saying that electronic warfare is the most likely explanation here – but this is an example of how an event like this could happen without being a deliberate act of war.

Again, if you want me to resolve this now, I'd have to be quite sure about it.

@Lorelai by the way, it is one thing to throw insults at me, but please do not be rude to other traders. I don't want people to feel like you're going to attack them if they ask a question or make a constructive comment here. You are welcome to express your opinion respectfully, but if I have to block you to stop you from insulting other traders, I will.

@a_l_e_x if they're being equally stupid I am going to tell them as such. Obviously everything Ukraine does is in self defence at the moment, Ukraine and Estonia are allies and that would not have happened if not for Russia. Another very unintelligent comparison.

Looking at your post history, I have to ask, are you Russian? Your comments are starting to sound very Russian. I'm sure there are Russians active on here whose job it is to spread disinformation and pretend obvious acts of war are "mistakes".

Edit: lmao he blocked me, Russian detected.

Edit 2: Poland's FM says Russia "deliberately targeted" Poland.

@Lorelai I've tried to interact with you in good faith but it's clear that you won't do the same. If you have nothing of substance to contribute, and you're going to continue insulting other traders, the logical decision is to block you. And if you're really spending your time combing through my profile, you should use this opportunity to touch grass. Bye

@Lorelai if you feel so strongly, you can always serve with a volunteer legion in Ukraine rather than fire at other Manifold users.

@Chumchulum why do you Putin’s cocksuckers think this is a strong argument and always use it whenever you feel like you’re losing on substance?

@MaxA How am I guilty of sucking Putin's cock? Is it because of my bets?

@Chumchulum Of course not. It's because of this dumb comment that only Putin's cocksuckers use. It's most typical for some random срач (look it up, it's a useful word) somewhere like VK or OK, coming from dumb Russian housewives living in half-forgotten villages in rural Russia where they have mobile internet but still shit in latrines.