How is the Hot Take of the Day chosen?

Each day, I will select a recent Bluesky post that has generated a great deal of controversy (i.e. a large number of negative reactions or users blocking the original poster) and crown it the Hot Take of the Day. I will then summarise the take and add it as an option to this market.

How are options resolved?

Options will resolve YES (i.e. Manifold users do agree with the take) or NO (i.e. Manifold users do not agree with the take) based on the number of YES and NO traders.

To register agreement with a Hot Take of the Day, traders should buy at least one YES share. To register disagreement, buy at least one NO share. The number of shares bought does not affect the value of a vote. Each Manifold user has one vote; all votes are of equal weight. A trader's vote can be cancelled by selling all shares in the option.

I may resolve an option YES if, at any time on the seventh calendar day after the option was added, there are at least two more YES holders than there are NO holders.

I may resolve an option NO if, at any time on the seventh calendar day after the option was added, there are at least two more NO holders than there are YES holders.

If I am not convinced of a consensus on the seventh calendar day after the option was added, the option will remain unresolved, to be re-evaluated on the fourteenth calendar day after the option was added, and so on.

A calendar day spans from 12:00am to 11:59pm in my local time zone (Melbourne, Australia).

This market is based on /Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr by Joshua.

I will not bet in this market.

• Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Bot Votes:

  • The account acc will be excluded from the vote tally because it is not expressing an opinion.

  • This exclusion is applied on a case-by-case basis and is not a blanket rule for dismissing all bot-labelled accounts.