Does Manifold agree with Bluesky's Hot Take of the Day?
14
400Ṁ654
resolved Feb 15
Resolved
N/A
Instead of letting people work from home, why not let workers live in the office? (2025-02-08)
Resolved
N/A
Repeating 'this is not normal' to everything Trump does is bad politics (2025-02-06)
Resolved
N/A
Anyone who withheld support from Kamala Harris as a means of advocating for Palestinians is a rube (2025-01-30)
Resolved
YES
Pandemic-associated school closures had a lasting effect on the mentality of part of Gen Z (2025-02-05)
Resolved
NO
Listening to an audiobook doesn't count as reading (2025-02-04)
Resolved
YES
Getting arrested for peaceful protest is a more effective way of bringing about change than destroying property (2025-02-03)
Resolved
NO
The US should increase tariffs as domestic manufacturing is more important than cheaply made products (2025-02-02)
Resolved
YES
We should wait for an investigation before blaming the DC plane crash on anything or anyone (2025-02-01)
Resolved
NO
Trump has made a good start (2025-01-31)
Resolved
NO
Maintaining a lead over China in the development of AI should be a top priority for the US government (2025-01-29)
Resolved
NO
There is not yet enough evidence of AfD being unconstitutional to ban the party under German law (2025-01-28)
Resolved
NO
Democrats need to shun anti-Zionists from the party (2025-01-27)
Resolved
NO
Dismissing AI-written books as inferior to human-written books is a type of ableism (2025-01-26)

How is the Hot Take of the Day chosen?

Each day, I will select a recent Bluesky post that has generated a great deal of controversy (i.e. a large number of negative reactions or users blocking the original poster) and crown it the Hot Take of the Day. I will then summarise the take and add it as an option to this market.

How are options resolved?

Options will resolve YES (i.e. Manifold users do agree with the take) or NO (i.e. Manifold users do not agree with the take) based on the number of YES and NO traders.

To register agreement with a Hot Take of the Day, traders should buy at least one YES share. To register disagreement, buy at least one NO share. The number of shares bought does not affect the value of a vote. Each Manifold user has one vote; all votes are of equal weight. A trader's vote can be cancelled by selling all shares in the option.

I may resolve an option YES if, at any time on the seventh calendar day after the option was added, there are at least two more YES holders than there are NO holders.

I may resolve an option NO if, at any time on the seventh calendar day after the option was added, there are at least two more NO holders than there are YES holders.

If I am not convinced of a consensus on the seventh calendar day after the option was added, the option will remain unresolved, to be re-evaluated on the fourteenth calendar day after the option was added, and so on.

A calendar day spans from 12:00am to 11:59pm in my local time zone (Melbourne, Australia).

This market is based on /Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr by Joshua.

I will not bet in this market.

  • Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Bot Votes:

    • The account acc will be excluded from the vote tally because it is not expressing an opinion.

    • This exclusion is applied on a case-by-case basis and is not a blanket rule for dismissing all bot-labelled accounts.

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Hot Take of the Day for 2025-02-08

Summarised as: "Instead of letting people work from home, why not let workers live in the office?"

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-15.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-02-06

Summarised as: "Repeating 'this is not normal' to everything Trump does is bad politics"

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-13.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-02-05

Summarised as: "Pandemic-associated school closures had a lasting effect on the mentality of part of Gen Z"

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-12.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-02-04

Summarised as: "Listening to an audiobook doesn't count as reading"

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-11.

I think I agree with this in the literal sense of the terms, but not the implication that it is somehow inferior.

This has also made me realize that I’m not really sure what would define something as “reading”. I would consider consuming braille media as reading, so it’s not just a matter of using sight. Nor the involvement of physical media, because I would also include ebooks and online articles. But what makes something reading I couldn’t say. Food for thought.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-02-03

Summarised as: "Getting arrested for peaceful protest is a more effective way of bringing about change than destroying property"

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-10.

Uhm, Acceleration "voted" on the opposite side to me. Would it be ableist to think it is not competent to vote?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen haha... I think it's safe to say that acc is not expressing an opinion, so, without necessarily adopting a blanket rule against counting votes from all bot-labelled accounts, I will adhere to the spirit of the market and exclude acc from the vote tally

wow, the AI summary of my comment is surprisingly good

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-02-02

Summarised as: "The US should increase tariffs as domestic manufacturing is more important than cheaply made products"

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-09.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-02-01

Summarised as: "We should wait for an investigation before blaming the DC plane crash on anything or anyone"

This statement and subsequent posts by Nina Turner urging Democrats not to "become conspiracy theorists" drew a mixed reaction on Bluesky.

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-08.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-31

Summarised as: "Trump has made a good start"

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-07.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-30

Summarised as: "Anyone who withheld support from Kamala Harris as a means of advocating for Palestinians is a rube"

This user received more than 400 replies and was blocked by more than 400 accounts.

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-06.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-29

Summarised as: "Maintaining a lead over China in the development of AI should be a top priority for the US government"

US Senator Chuck Schumer received approximately 3,000 replies for this take.

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-05.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-28

Summarised as: "There is not yet enough evidence of AfD being unconstitutional to ban the party under German law"

Article 21(2) of Germany's Basic Law states: "Parties that, by reason of their aims or the behaviour of their adherents, seek to undermine or abolish the free democratic basic order or to endanger the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany shall be unconstitutional." An open letter signed by 200 lawyers argues that Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) meets this threshold, citing some examples of allegedly unconstitutional behaviour. Renate Künast, a member of the Bundestag belonging to the Greens, says "that is not enough legally." Her post has received more than 800 replies and quotes.

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-04.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-27

Summarised as: "Democrats need to shun anti-Zionists from the party"

The original thread is a couple of days old, but it continues to draw attention as the poster repeatedly doubles down. He has been blocked by more than 800 accounts in the last 24 hours.

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-03.

Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-26

Summarised as: "Dismissing AI-written books as inferior to human-written books is a type of ableism"

This post has received more than 600 replies and quotes. The poster has been blocked by more than 1,500 accounts in the last 24 hours.

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-02.

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