Will Ronald Plasterk succeed in his role as "Verkenner"?
Will Ronald Plasterk succeed in his role as "Verkenner"?
12
210Ṁ940resolved Dec 29
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve as YES only if he manages to suggest a combination of political parties that will, (after his mandate as verkenner) start to negotiate to form (or support) the next government of the Netherlands, with the support of a combination of parties that can survive a no-confidence vote.
Otherwise the question will resolve NO, examples of failing include, but are not limited to: if he resigns or fails to find a group of political parties willing to start negotiating.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.