a avatar
arae
closes Jan 1, 2024
China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan [in 2023]
93%
chance

This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 90% chance:

People I take seriously are genuinely concerned that China is gearing up for an invasion of Taiwan this decade. Ben Rhodes has a thorough, thoughtful take in the Atlantic, and Phil Davidson, the retired admiral formerly in charge of US military operations in the region, has argued China will be ready for an invasion by 2027. Not controlling Taiwan is clearly a major psychic injury to Communist Party leaders, and taking over a world leader in semiconductor production that’s strategically placed in the South China Sea would have geostrategic benefits, too.

But I have a hard time getting over the fact that an invasion would be outrageously costly for China in terms of blood and treasure and international esteem, and that these costs would almost surely outweigh any benefits. Mattathias Schwartz at Insider has a useful rundown of the challenges an invasion poses, not least of which is that Taiwan is an island and amphibious invasions are extraordinarily difficult. John Culver, a veteran CIA analyst on China, argues that there would be clear signs before an invasion, like “surging production of ballistic and cruise missiles; anti-air, air-to-air, and large rockets for long-range beach bombardment; and numerous other items, at least a year before D-Day.”

While China has stepped up its probes of Taiwan’s defenses, none of those warning signs are visible yet. We saw preparations for the Russian invasion of Ukraine months ahead of time; it wasn’t clear whether Putin was serious or feinting, but he was definitely up to something. The situation with China and Taiwan just isn’t the same, and the debacle that is the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably doesn’t make Xi Jinping more inclined to repeat Putin’s mistake.

(Vox)

Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.

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nickten avatar
nickten
bought Ṁ10 of NO

NO, they will not. :)

egroj avatar
JAAM
bought Ṁ30 of YES

@nickten I think everyone being YES is understanding that if there is no invasion, this market resolves YES

egroj avatar
JAAM
is predicting YES at 50%

@egroj betting*

nickten avatar
nickten
is predicting NO at 50%

@egroj i hate questions in negative and will stand my ground

yaboi69 avatar
yaboi69
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@a misclick, or are you expecting a war?

a avatar
arae
bought Ṁ50 of NO

@yaboi69 misclick