Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have at least 5 users submit a trade?
Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have at least 5 users submit a trade?
4
110Ṁ160resolved Mar 20
Resolved
NO1H
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Test#10
1/2 DAY LONG EDITION.
A proof-of-concept that allows a silly picking-pennies-up-off-the-ground attack on some automated traders as they apparently currently exist. Getting 5 participants implies that I'm picking up pennies off the ground for every run of this market (+$M10 from the system bonus) and you're picking up pennies off the ground that an easily-taunted trading bot drops on the floor. You're effectively betting against the bots' programming getting more sophisticated before close (assuming someone bothers to try to attack the bots somehow).
May close early if YES. This is a rerun of the experiment to see if the exploit still is viable.
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Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.