Will Amazon lay off 11k or more people before the end of Q1, 2023?
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resolved Mar 25
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YES

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predicted YES
predicted YES

The elasticity/swing in this market is sorta crazy

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@firstuserhere No numbers, but some of those cuts definitely already happened in November: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/16/tech/amazon-layoffs/index.html

predicted YES

@brp yes, i agree. I personally estimated the cuts, from personal as well as public information, to be around 3.5-6.5k

predicted NO

“Between the reductions we made in November and the ones we’re sharing today, we plan to eliminate just over 18,000 roles,” so the 18,000 number includes layoffs from November.

https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/update-from-ceo-andy-jassy-on-role-eliminations

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@brp the question then is, how many people were laid off in November, because they announced a plan to eliminate 10k which has now been revised to 18k (just over), but the number of people who were actually laid off was not 10k (probably, because i didn't find a source stating how many people got laid off, just Amazon's *plan*, which may take time to be executed. Gotta hop on blind and conduct a poll)

bought Ṁ100 of YES

How are you planning on resolving this market? Are you including layoffs that were announced during Q4 2022?

predicted YES

@jonny How many people do you estimate were laid off in the November layoff?

I'm not including those. This (and other similar markets i made) are exclusively 2023.

predicted YES

@jonny Across all orgs, divs, countries

sold Ṁ25 of YES

@firstuserhere 10k layoffs in November, and they've announced the total will be 18k, so ought to be another 8k coming this month

predicted YES

@jonny was the number 10k for November? I recall it being closer to 5k

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@jonny as far as i remember, it was planned to be 10k, and that plan has changed to 18k, whereas the actual number of people laid off so far is much less than 10k, based on what i know

predicted NO

@firstuserhere I know they announced 10k layoffs in November, and their policy is to only announce once they've told the individuals affected, which to me would suggest they did all 10k layoffs then. What's your source for fewer people being laid off?

predicted YES

@jonny around mid November, after announcing the layoffs, they offered a voluntary release program with pay of 3 months + salary of 1 week per six months worked. The people who opted for this won't count towards layoff

predicted NO

@firstuserhere ah ok makes sense - thanks for the explanation :)

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@firstuserhere Is there a particular source you are (or will be) using to distinguish “layoff” numbers from “voluntary separation” numbers?

predicted YES

@MattCWilson I have no source at the moment for this, If you or anyone else can provide a credible source, I can consider it.