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I hit streak of 250 today, and once again, at every +50 streak, I am re-running this market:

Here are the streaks as verified from the API-

Chris Billington: 203
Max Payne: 210

Quantum Observer: 206
Fion : 220
BTE: 280 (!)

Resolves YES.

.

https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-10-or-more-people-with-streaks

Will 10 or more people, with streaks of 200 or more, comment in this market?

59% chance. Post ss of your streak if you’ve got it >=200. I’ll verify using the api once it’s back enabled. Manifold markets daily streaks only. I have a streak above 200, but I won’t count for this market

Hmm, so assuming there haven't been any fakes so far, anybody with a 200 day streak who hasn't already posted can bet it all the way to 100% and make a risk free profit. However, there's only 14 mana to win, so will they bother?

And of course it's a classic situation where the more you bet, the more likely you are to lose.

@Fion None are fakes (verified with API). Here's me which makes 5.

import json
import requests

def get_user(username):
    url = f"https://manifold.markets/api/v0/user/{username}"
    return json.loads(requests.get(url, timeout=30).text)

USERS = [
    'BTE',
    'Fion',
    'QuantumObserver',
    'MaxPayne',
    'chrisjbillington',
]
for user in USERS:
    print(f"{user}: {get_user(user)['currentBettingStreak']} day streak")

BTE: 280 day streak
Fion: 220 day streak
QuantumObserver: 206 day streak
MaxPayne: 210 day streak
chrisjbillington: 203 day streak

@firstuserhere resolves YES

Screenshots can be faked.

@Milli api is back, I will check streaks using that

@Predictor i think you have to post a screenshot and then we have 5

also:

@nickten Okay, that's great!

unlisted just now? :/ @firstuserhere

@nickten nope! I can't toggle it for some reason

@firstuserhere maybe because it's non predictive

@firstuserhere no. other "non-predictive" are still listed

@nickten no idea then. I didn't unlist it just now, I can't remember if it was already unlisted but i didn't change that status in days

@firstuserhere @nickten I'm unable to make it listed

@nickten I've posted this market in the discord, hopefully that helps understand why it's unlisted. Anyway, free marketing

@firstuserhere that means an admin unlisted it

@jack gotcha. @nickten told you wasn't me :)

There are 79 users on manifold with a streak ≥ 200, and two with YES positions and one (me) with a NO position here that have not yet commented with a screenshot.

The YES positions are small though, and 94% surely is tempting to buy the other way and decide not to comment if you're one of them ;).

@chrisjbillington It is not clear to me if a comment without a screenshot may count. @firstuserhere could verify everybody who commented via API.

@marktweise In the other market @firstuserhere clarified a screenshot showing a steak 200 or higher was necessary to count, and that these will also be verified using the API.