Poll: Recursive Self-improvement leads to accelerated technological progress?
55
91
Never closes
Quite Unlikely (0-20%)
Unlikely (21-40%)
About even chance (41-60%)
Likely (61-80%)
Quite likely (81-100%)
Assume that HLMI will exist at some point. Some people have argued the following:
If AI systems do nearly all research and development, improvements in AI will accelerate the pace of technological progress, including further progress in AI.
Over a short period (less than 5 years), this feedback loop could cause technological progress to become more than an order of magnitude faster.
How likely do you find this argument to be broadly correct?
HLMI = high level machine intelligence
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HMLI? GPT4 Suggest it means: High-Level Machine Intelligence - is that correct?
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