As per discussion around here: https://twitter.com/ohabryka/status/1738770505577197595
Alyssa Vance (Aug 29): Like GPT-4, Google's Gemini will, predictably, trigger a surge of public and government concern about advanced AI. It's good to prepare plans in advance so they can be launched in December or January
John Pressman (Dec 22): The prediction was a renewed wave of AI panic due to Gemini in December/January, I feel fairly confident saying that's not on the table except in so far as AI doomers are willing to hype anything that happens regardless if it scares people more.
Oliver Habryka (Dec 23): I agree that it's unlikely, though curious about your probabilities. I assign 10%-20% chance that the full Gemini does indeed come out in January and that we will see a large reaction to it (Polymarket is at 78% that it will be released before end of January).
This will resolve 60 days after the public gets access to Gemini Ultra, or earlier (without bothering to poll) if the answer is clear. If it is unclear, 60 days after release I will poll.
Resolves to YES if, by judgment of a YES/NO Twitter poll, Gemini Ultra did trigger a surge of panic and concern.
Resolves to NO if the poll says it didn't.
Resolves to N/A if Gemini Ultra is not released by August 1, 2024, but deadline will be extended until then if it is delayed.
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I think the most likely YES scenario is "Gemini Ultra gets added in a super-visible and impressive way to gmail, and thus suddenly grabs attention of hundreds of millions of people".
I do not think that is especially likely given Google's product culture, even if Gemini Ultra itself is impressive, but possible. Willing to buy from 3% to 5% on that basis, and did.