Will the Democrats make concessions to get the debt ceiling raised and/or default on the debt?
resolved Jun 4

MattY says (at https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1611474129064022021 but that will get deleted soon):

"Either the debt ceiling will be raised and things will be fine, or else the debt ceiling will be ignored through one means or another and Republicans will be able to sue and lose if they want to. But there’s no universe in which the country defaults or they win concessions."

Will I judge that we do indeed live in such a universe, where either (A) we default or (B) the Republicans win concessions?

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
predicted YES

Please resolve @ZviMowshowitz

predicted YES

Easiest market ever

bought Ṁ300 of NO

The treasury could use a "trillion-dollar platinum coin" as a potential solution to avoiding a default without raising the debt ceiling, so this market is relevant:

How does this resolve if both sides make concessions? Eg, a "grand bargain" or perhaps something less grand.

predicted NO

@MartinRandall If raising the DC was clearly a bargaining chip that got Rs a better deal then YES. If Ds get a clearly good deal on net discounting the DC, then NO. If I'm not sure, ambiguous.