Will the Democrats make concessions to get the debt ceiling raised and/or default on the debt? | Manifold Markets

1

Will the Democrats make concessions to get the debt ceiling raised and/or default on the debt?

34

closes 2024

94%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

MattY says (at https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1611474129064022021 but that will get deleted soon):

"Either the debt ceiling will be raised and things will be fine, or else the debt ceiling will be ignored through one means or another and Republicans will be able to sue and lose if they want to. But there’s no universe in which the country defaults or they win concessions."

Will I judge that we do indeed live in such a universe, where either (A) we default or (B) the Republicans win concessions?

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MPis predicting YES at 94%

Easiest market ever

Gabriellebought Ṁ300 of NO

The treasury could use a "trillion-dollar platinum coin" as a potential solution to avoiding a default without raising the debt ceiling, so this market is relevant:

How does this resolve if both sides make concessions? Eg, a "grand bargain" or perhaps something less grand.

Zvi Mowshowitzis predicting NO at 44%

@MartinRandall If raising the DC was clearly a bargaining chip that got Rs a better deal then YES. If Ds get a clearly good deal on net discounting the DC, then NO. If I'm not sure, ambiguous.

Matthew Lichti bought Ṁ10 YES at 94%

Adele Lopez bought Ṁ10 NO at 94%

Devansh bought Ṁ40 NO from 97% to 94%

Gabrielle bought Ṁ700 YES from 95% to 97%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 95% 🤖

Gabrielle bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 87% to 95%

Gabrielle sold Ṁ100 NO from 77% to 87%

Adele Lopez bought Ṁ10 NO from 78% to 77%

MP sold Ṁ39 YES from 80% to 78%

Logan Zoellner bought Ṁ10 YES from 79% to 80%

Matthew Lichti bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

Tyler created limit order for Ṁ200 YES at 75% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ47/Ṁ100 YES at 79% (cancelled)

Jack bought Ṁ200 YES from 75% to 78%

Tyler filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 75%

Tyler sold Ṁ86 YES from 79% to 76%

Simon Mendelsohn bought Ṁ10 NO from 80% to 79%

Levi Finkelstein bought Ṁ1 NO at 80%

HMYS_BOT_3000 bought Ṁ2 NO at 80%

Jack bought Ṁ200 YES from 74% to 80%

Levi Finkelstein bought Ṁ3 YES at 74%

Levi Finkelstein bought Ṁ3 YES from 73% to 74%

Daniel Chaput bought Ṁ10 YES at 73%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 YES at 73% (cancelled)

Jack bought Ṁ100 YES from 67% to 72%

Jack bought Ṁ100 YES from 61% to 67%

Matthew Lichti bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 61%

Dan B sold Ṁ64 YES at 60%

Jf P sold Ṁ8 YES from 61% to 60%

Logan Zoellner bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 61%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 YES at 60%

Nick Allen sold Ṁ211 YES from 65% to 60%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 YES at 65%

Tyler bought Ṁ70 YES from 60% to 65%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 YES at 60%

MP filled limit order Ṁ292/Ṁ500 YES at 60% (cancelled)

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 YES from 51% to 52%

Jf P bought Ṁ7 YES at 51%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 41%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 71%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 32%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 80%

Nick Allen bought Ṁ50 YES from 45% to 51%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ27/Ṁ100 NO at 45% (cancelled)

Nick Allen bought Ṁ100 YES from 35% to 48%

JAAM sold Ṁ3 YES at 35%

sam bought Ṁ10 YES from 34% to 35%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ100 NO at 34% (cancelled)

ctat bought Ṁ30 YES from 32% to 37%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 NO at 32% (cancelled)

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