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Final value was 66.

I don't have any inside info, except I reloaded the page and it now says 36, so the chances of >50 in the future seem unlikely to be 90%+, so I took a little NO to shake things up. Trip is a go either way at this point.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/07/us/wildfire-smoke-forecast.html

The worst period of hazy, unhealthy air in New York City will last from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, according to a New York Times analysis of computer forecast models.

But, AQI is a weird nonlinear scale and AQI 50 is a normal level of pollution. The relevant pollutant here is PM2.5, and AQI 50 = PM2.5 12 (ug/m3). This is roughly the US average. The levels measured in NYC today reached a peak of pm2.5 800 (!!!) according to data at https://a816-dohbesp.nyc.gov/IndicatorPublic/beta/key-topics/airquality/realtime/ or 300 according to https://www.iqair.com/us/usa/new-york/new-york-city. So even with the worst expected to clear by Friday, I think it's likely that the AQI will be above 50 Saturday, but 50 would actually be fine. Levels around AQI >150 (=PM2.5 56) would probably be more concerning for short-term exposure like this (https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/).

For a quantitative calculation of the health impacts, I think https://dynomight.net/air/ has a good rough estimate of the impacts of pm2.5 pollution: on average, 1 year of 2500 PM2.5 exposure costs roughly 1 DALY in long-term health impacts. (So 1 hour of 2500 PM2.5 exposure costs 1 DAL-hour.) And the effects are thought to be roughly linear. So 3 hours of exposure at the peak of 800 pm2.5 would cost roughly 1 DAL-hour in chronic health impacts (which is roughly equivalent to the health impacts of smoking 5 cigarettes). At the levels Tuesday of roughly PM2.5 150, that would be roughly 17 hours of exposure = 1 DAL-hour. With Saturday forecast to be much better, it would probably not a big deal for a short-term one-off event, for an average-healthy person (sensitive groups should probably expect larger health impacts.)

How Long Will the Smoke Last?

In New York City, the hazy, unhealthy air is expected to linger through Thursday morning.

Here's another forecast with some more details: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/07/wildfire-smoke-forecast-air-quality-northeast/

How long will wildfire smoke last? Here’s the latest air quality forecast.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires will linger over New York City and parts of the Northeast for the next 24 to 48 hours. Here’s the latest wildfire smoke forecast.

@jack Thanks! This was very much me spending M50 to get someone to find the answer.

At current NYC levels everyone is feeling not great even indoors, for reference...