Will Sam Altman and the OpenAI board reach a deal by the 5pm pacific deadline today?

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resolved Nov 20

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Has to be a full deal where a new board is selected, Altman agrees to return. Altman set a deadline of 5pm pacific (that's 12 minutes from market open).

EDIT: TBC, if I don't see a definitive report one way or the other by ~530 pacific on what happened, this probably does not resolve until tomorrow AM.

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predicted NO

Third time's the charm?

Night, everyone. Was fun to watch. If I don't see a credible source soon this won't resolve until tomorrow.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Is there context on why this is a particular deadline?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@ChrisPrichard The reporting is that Sam set this one, presumably implying if they do not meet it, he will not come back regardless of anything that happens later.

predicted NO

@DavidBolin but wasn't the same deadline set yesterday, and nothing happened?

predicted NO

@JaesonBooker Sounds like Sam did not set that one.

@DavidBolin sounds reasonable--why do you think people disagree with this? interesting to me that this market is priced at <10% when it might have been a hard deadline but the "back as ceo by eoy 2024" markets are still in the mid 70s.

predicted NO

@nmehndir I suppose the reason is that they think it's possible they were near enough to a deal that Sam backed down again.