This will be based on whatever Meta calls Llama-4, whether or not it deserves that name, or if it renames its next larger LLM to not include 'llama' I will use best judgment on whether it counts. If Meta does not release a relevant model by EOY 2025 this resolves to NO. If the model is not open sourced, it does not count.
By default will judge based on the leaderboard here: https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
Clarification: This will compare to GPT-4 versions that existed at market creation. At this point, this is 99% a market on whether Llama-4 will exist and be an open model, I would be super surprised if it wasn't good enough on Arena.
Once it has been on the leaderboard for 7 days if it is close to allow ratings to settle, or if the resolution is obvious in either direction for any reason, I will resolve. If I feel the leaderboard is clearly wrong or it is not available at the time and the answer is non-obvious, I will consult experts and/or use a Twitter poll.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ496 | |
2 | Ṁ360 | |
3 | Ṁ339 | |
4 | Ṁ277 | |
5 | Ṁ171 |