Which of these writing accomplishments will Zvi Mowshowitz achieve in 2024?
Basic
36
Ṁ7019Jan 1
99%
Jones Act overview post
96%
Decide it was all Worth It (must keep at it, then decide, subjective)
93%
50+ Weekly AI Posts (AI#94 is published)
93%
A comprehensive review of the EU AI Act
92%
12 Monthly Roundups (Monthly Roundup #25)
87%
52 Weekly AI Posts (AI#96 is published)
62%
50%+ Paid Subscriber growth on Substack (naive trendline #)
54%
Substack post with 50k+ total views
50%
Finish year with 500 alignment forum karma
50%
66%+ Free Subscriber growth on Substack (naive trendline #)
34%
Meet with a Congressperson
25%
Published in Vox
20%
Published in The Free Press
19%
30k+ Twitter followers (Jan 1: 23k)
18%
Meet with the CEO of Anthropic, OpenAI or DeepMind
18%
Substack post with 100k+ total views
15%
Meet with a Senator
12%
A Twitter post with 1m+ views
10%
Author on a paper in ArXiv
6%
A post about the 2024 Election (oh no)
Definitions:
Meeting requires either a virtual meeting of 30 minutes, or an in-person meeting of 5 minutes, during which actual conversation takes place. Hearings don't count.
Published means writing an article and having a byline of 'by Zvi Mowshowitz' somewhere. Letters to the editor or mailbox questions and such do not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-my-review-of-on-the-edge-be-lo?r=UHBhdQ
Seems like quite a strong signal for the Nate Silver question
Related questions
Related questions
Which of these podcasts will Zvi Mowshowitz appear on in 2024?
Will Zvi endorse a presidential candidate in 2024?
19% chance
Will Zvi Mowshowitz earn ElonBucks by 3/1/25?
51% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
31% chance
Will Zvi Mowshowitz call one of his posts "Que Sera Sora" before May 2025?
27% chance
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
15% chance
Will Zvi Mowshowitz go on the Mindscape podcast by the end of 2024?
10% chance
Will Zvi Mowshowitz be a guest on the Ezra Klein Show podcast before the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will Zvi Mowshowitz go on the Hear This Idea podcast by the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will Zvi Mowshowitz go on the Making Sense podcast with Sam Harris by the end of 2024?
5% chance