In the 2023 State of AI Report (https://www.stateof.ai/) this is the third prediction:
"Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)."
This resolves to YES if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was true, and the example they site is reasonable.
This resolves to NO if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was false, or all cited examples and ones I can come up with seem unreasonable.
I will resolve this early if the market is >95% and I believe we have a clear example of such an advancement, but since we do not know when the report comes out we cannot resolve to NO early.
If there is no report by EOY 24 I will evaluate this myself.
When evaluating advances, I will interpret the word 'crush' to mean a large advancement in capabilities or skill - e.g. merely 'the new best chess or go program' would not count but AlphaZero or AlphaGo would have.
