If SB 1047 passes with the third party auditing requirement, will there be a third party audit available under $500k? | Manifold

If SB 1047 passes with the third party auditing requirement, will there be a third party audit available under $500k?

Plus

14

Ṁ1695

2029

68%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if at the end of 2028, there is at least one model evaluation service that is credentialed in California, or otherwise permitted under their law, that charges less than $500k to test a model.

Resolves NO if there is no such service AND such a service is required for at least one existing model, or would be if one existing model was released for the first time.

Resolves to my best estimate of fair market price (%) correcting for any manipulations, if no such bill or requirement has passed and it is September 1, 2025 or later, or the chance such a bill will pass by then is clearly under 5% (in which case please ping me for resolution).

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bought Ṁ100 YES

You can get a soc 2 audit for way less than that. Six figures would be the price for highest tier (eg big 4) auditors, and it would still depend how large your company is.

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Related questions

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?

Who will publicly comment on SB-1047 before EOY 2024?

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?

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