If SB 1047 passes with the third party auditing requirement, will there be a third party audit available under $500k?
14
Ṁ11602029
80%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if at the end of 2028, there is at least one model evaluation service that is credentialed in California, or otherwise permitted under their law, that charges less than $500k to test a model.
Resolves NO if there is no such service AND such a service is required for at least one existing model, or would be if one existing model was released for the first time.
Resolves to my best estimate of fair market price (%) correcting for any manipulations, if no such bill or requirement has passed and it is September 1, 2025 or later, or the chance such a bill will pass by then is clearly under 5% (in which case please ping me for resolution).
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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