Contest announcement is here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NZz3Das7jFdCBN9zH/announcing-the-open-philanthropy-ai-worldviews-contest
As of market creation, I have not begun writing a potential entry, and have not decided whether to attempt one, or how much effort to devote to it.
I will not trade this market unless I first submit an entry to the contest.
If I do not submit an entry to the contest by May 31, then this market will resolve to its last known value, adjusted for any manipulation, or cancelled if things seem too confused to figure out what a reasonable resolution value would be.
If I do submit an entry to the contest, this market resolves YES if I win at least a $25,000 prize, and NO if I do not.
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@NikolasKuhn If I don't enter I will look at the graph and decide if I think anyone is manipulating the price. If not, I'll resolve to last price. If yes, and I can figure out more or less what the fair price was supposed to be, I'll resolve to that. If I can't do that, to avoid rewarding the manipulation and punishing others I'll cancel.
They've likely heard of a good % of the existing high-level arguments about AI alignment before; I'm writing my entry(s) with that hypothesis in mind, imagining them preferring somewhat-more-technical analysis/new-info.
I could be wrong, though... might change my bet-direction on here to hedge that.
@NicholasKross The fact that such folks are likely already reading some of my things and know a lot of the arguments I'd make is main reason I'm skeptical about entering. Also one of the reasons I'd perhaps need to enter privately, to make different arguments, perhaps.
@ZviMowshowitz Aye. I'm personally trying to think more deeply about, and learn more about, the existing technical proposals and what I imagine would be needed to make things go well.
>need time to think deeply on these things
>need money to buy long blocks of free time
>could get money from AI alignment grants
>the grants are conditional on you already knowing what you're doing
>need to do in-depth learning and thinking, to know what you're doing...