Refers to my first entry only in case I somehow enter two or more times.
I will not reveal, until the winner is announced, whether I entered the contest.
Resolves YES if review gets posted to ACX before the winner is announced.
Resolves NO if review is not so posted before the winner is announced.
Resolves to a % (likely market price) if I do not enter, once winner is announced.
If this trades high, I will also create a market on whether I will win.
1,000
3.00OK, so fair warning, this market seems to be 'trading wrong' and I want to double check before I resolve it. I don't think whoever is selling read the market rules?
So I will add this information: I didn't enter the contest. I'm not going to trade, but if you think this shouldn't resolve to 38%, make a case why not? I certainly don't think I would have had only a 9% chance to make the finals if I'd entered.
@ZviMowshowitz TBC thinking about it more it wasn't obvious I hadn't entered until I said that, so if you thought I probably did enter it wasn't crazy to trade that low before. So probably this is just sitting here as Free Money, but I'm going to stick by my rules and not take it. Again, unless someone gives me a good argument why not this is going to resolve to 38% because I did not enter the contest.
@ZviMowshowitz I thought you had entered, and traded based on that (wrong) assumption. I read the finalist reviews and didn’t believe them to be your writing and thus bought NO.
Scott Alexander entered Scott Alexander's contest (which is judged by Scott Alexander fans) twice and only one of his reviews was a finalist. There is no way this should ever be over 50%.
@VinceVatter I need a notification bot that tells me when a price goes up to 80% after I just bidded it down to 40%
Given this already has a lot of action and is trading at 73%, sure, here everyone goes: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/if-i-enter-the-acx-book-review-cont-1450d39525d5