why are the price mismatched?

@JohnsonDaniel lack of people arbitraging. I think the arbitrage bot is out of money

note that you can actually bet down this market to its true probability without fearing that doing so would endanger the NO bettors and give Isaac cheaper shares

@VictorLi but if you do, I'll buy it back up, while also buying more NO in WvM, guaranteeing myself a profit.

(Or rather, somebody else will get to it first.)

Buying this market down below WvM does unfortunately lower the price of WvM because there's always somebody who cares more about their own profit than the minnow cause, and assuming the markets resolve identically, there will always be free money to be made by arbitrage if they don't match.

@Fion It is like quantum entanglement, these two markets are inextricably linked