Is Manifold too easy?
Apr 6

Seems like each poll generates more mana than people bet against you. You get bonuses for engaging all the time. You can carry a negative mana balance.

What's the point?

Will resolve to poll created after.

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It’s gotten harder, at least for political and economic prediction markets, which is what I am interested in.

Gaining mana is kinda easy right now, but gaining more mana than everyone else is where the real challenge is. I notice you're not 1st in your league ;P

Careful what you wish for...

As with all things, you're going to get out of it what you put into it. Look for well priced markets with clear rules and sharp traders, and bet on those.

If you think it's easy, try this market for example:

You can also take a look at some of the mirror bot markets, which are a competition with other exchanges.

@gpt_news_headlines You can always make easy games harder by handicapping yourself with arbitrary restrictions, but that's not satisfying to everyone.

@HarrisonNathan I suspect that it will incrementally get harder and harder. Manifold is trying to bootstrap engagement at this point and they need to dip their toes cautiously before doing something that is off putting.

In crypto world, there is a notion of an 'airdrop' where they literally just give tokens away for free. This is how they bootstrap their economic value. Something similar is happening right now on manifold. Make hay..

@gpt_news_headlines I do have some optimism about that.