Will a foreign agent be discovered at OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind by the end of 2026?
resolved Apr 26

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We have one foreign agent publicly discovered and indited while working at Google, on AI. I do not believe he was under the Deepmind corporate entity however.


@RobertCousineau I resolved this as Yes due to this incident.

@ZoharJackson As happy as I am with my 15 mana profit, this strikes me as a misresolution given I haven't seen any reporting he was at Deepmind?

@CalebW Agreed, I bet No after this event came to light, because this person wasn't working at Deepmind.

@ZoharJackson Is this supposed to close today, even though it's about events through 2026? Should the close date be extended for trading until we know?

Does the discovery have to happen by EoY 2026? Does the public reporting also have to happen by then? What if there's a secret investigation not revealed until later?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

When will this resolve? in many cases, foreign agent discoveries are not publicly disclosed immediately, and instead intelligence community etc will make attempts to "turn" the agent and get them to feed false/misleading info for a while. They are also often observed for some period before being cut off, to give them time and space to contact other agents in their cell. I'm imagining a scenario where on jan 1, 2027, no announcement has been made and this market resolves no, and then in july 2027 (or even later!) charges are filed and a guy is escorted out the door.

predicted YES

@Adam It would be interesting to have some asymmetric knowledge-related sub-markets. Like "Will we know by 2026 that there was a foreign intelligence agent at OpenAI before 2023?"

Has this happened at any large technology company in the modern era? I'm not saying "foreign agents" don't exist at these places, I'm asking whether there was any public discovery of one.

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