This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Wish" (2023) grosses more than $53,000,000 during its 3-day domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11304740/ will be used to resolve this market.
Note: The Box Office Mojo "Domestic Opening" is typically the 3-day total. "Wish" releases during Thanksgiving week, so some opening numbers will cite the 5-day instead. Regardless, I will use whatever is listed by Box Office Mojo. (Example: For Devotion (2022), released around the same time last year, the opening gross listed is $5.9M).
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized (i.e. not studio estimates), which may be before the listed date. If Box Ofifce Mojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspect of this question is unclear, please ask!
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This is resolving NO. BoxOfficeMojo lists 19.5M for the domestic opening. (I admit, when I chose this line, I thought 53M was at least a plausible opening for the movie—I saw a range of 40-60M, and I went on the higher end. I had no idea it could possibly open this low, and would have strongly bet against it if it was a market! Predicting is hard).
Opening the weekend after Hunger Games, and the same weekend as Napoleon. I’m hoping the former is big, and the latter may take some of the general movie fans.
Also, to some degree, Disney has been teaching its core audience to wait for things to be on Disney+, as some inevitability from having the series. People could be waiting for word-of-mouth to be good before shelling out money for the whole family, which is where the big bucks come from.