Will this 25 carat yellow diamond ring sell for >$2 million at its upcoming Bonhams auction? (pic included)

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resolved May 26

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The Bonhams auction house in Hong Kong is about to auction off a very valuable diamond ring. Link:

FINE FANCY VIVID YELLOW DIAMOND AND DIAMOND RING

Bonhams gave it an estimated value of HK$10,500,000 - HK$18,000,000, or approximately US$1,300,000 - US$2,300,000. This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Bonhams website is >$2,000,000 USD.

Resolution details:

Example from a past auction: this cartier diamond watch lists "Sold for AU$11,070 inc. premium". This is the equivalent number I will use.
Note that this final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium.
If the lot is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell, this market resolves NO. It only resolves YES with a listed sale price from this auction of >$2 million.
The sale price may be reported in HKD. If Bonhams directly reports a USD price, I will use that, otherwise I will use the Yahoo currency converter on the day I resolve the market.

Details

The rectangular-shaped fancy vivid yellow diamond weighing 25.88 carats, flanked by trapezoid step-cut diamond shoulders weighing 0.71 and 0.70 carat respectively; mounted in platinum and 18 karat yellow gold; ring size 6.

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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