Context:
X, Uber Eats launch March Madness perfect bracket challenge: winner gets at trip to Mars (Fox)
And I just saw this pop up on X:
It doesn't matter whether they actually go to Mars. There just needs to be a consensus of credible reporting that there is a perfect bracket through this program that is now promised a trip to Mars.
If we have not heard anything about a perfect bracket, resolves NO by default on May 15th.
If they award a free trip to Mars to someone who didn't have a perfect bracket, that doesn't count either. They need to say "this person had a perfect bracket and thus won a trip to Mars". Obviously just winning the 100k for having the best bracket is irrelevant to this question.
1,000@Ziddletwix I looked it up and apparently it's like 1 in 100,000,000,000 for a skilled guesser to get it right? So this market should be like <0.1%?
@jim not sure how they calculate it (i'll assume they assume betting lines are accurate i guess?) but those odds wouldn't be toooooo bad if you made optimistic assumptions about how people spread out their guesses. more realistically though i dunno how tiny the probability should be given that musk could announce it for PR for some backdated bracket. seems unlikely he'd want to be on the hook for sending someone to mars, but who knows