This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Mean Girls" (2024) grosses more than $30,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11762114/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the listed date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by January 19th, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
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NVM that was worldwide
@HenriThunberg Yup, looks like it. BoxOfficeMojo lists a 28.6M opening (well under 30M), and the dailies are no longer "estimates", so this is resolving NO. (This market was a bit of a roller coster!)
@TiredCliche Like, the trailer should just be the entirety of "Meet the Plastics", that song has been stuck in my head for years now
On a 3-day basis, the pic is looking at $27.5M, which isn’t that far from Universal’s pre-Covid R-rated Girls Trip, which debuted to $31.2M in mid-July 2017.
BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day holiday starts of $27.7 million and $31.5 million for Mean Girls.
http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20240111.html
For maximum clarity, I'll quote this bullet point from the description:
"For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it."
As Monday is a holiday, some outlets will report the 4-day opening. I will use whatever BoxOfficeMojo lists as the "domestic opening", however it is computed.
(Informally, I've only seen BoxOfficeMojo use a 3-day opening for holiday weekends, so I am personally betting under the assumption that Monday will be excluded, but I'm not going to litigate what should/shouldn't be included, I'll follow the number they post).
@Ziddletwix thank you!! ugh, such clarity is incredible.
BOM typically gives you a few numbers, we’ll probably get both the 3day and 4day. they like to be verbose.