"The Town" is a Ringer/Puck podcast hosted by Matt Belloni which covers Hollywood news. On January 22nd, Matt and Lucas Shaw held their annual "Box Office Draft". Link here: https://www.theringer.com/2024/1/22/24047151/the-2024-box-office-draft.

This market resolves YES if Matt Belloni is declared the winner over Lucas Shaw, at the end of 2024.

Informal rules summary:

• Matt & Lucas each draft 5 movies, and then draft a 6th movie for the other player's team (gifting a "bomb").

• At the end of the year, tally the worldwide box office minus the reported budget for each movie.

• The team with the largest total (adding up all 6 movies) is declared the winner.

Matt's team:

• Deadpool 3

• Wicked Part One

• Mufasa

• Kung Fu Panda 4

• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

• Madame Web (the gifted "bomb")

Lucas' team:

• Despicable Me 4

• Inside Out 2

• Joker: Folie à Deux

• Dune: Part Two

• If

• Horizon: An American Saga 2 (the gifted "bomb")

More details:

• "Reported budgets" are hard to define—I will follow whoever is crowned winner by the podcast. (If somehow the podcast ends and they don't crown a winner, I guess only then will I try to calculate it myself).

• Here are their picks for the 2023 Box Office Draft (prediction is hard, both "bombs" were actually hits). Matt Belloni was declared the winner.

• They're also doing some bonus contest where the producer picks movies that went undrafted and tries to beat both of them. I won't factor that into the binary choice for this market (it only matters that Matt beats Lucas).

• If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask.

March 19th update: I'll try to keep the list occasionally updated as movies release. Currently, Madame Web is topping out around ~$100M, Dune is past $500M (and seems to be aimed towards ~$650 or so), and KFP4 is a hit but a bit harder to call (maybe ~$500M?). I'll wait to update the list until a few of these have more clear WW totals.