BoxOfficeMojo is the data source:
Madame Web: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1379697409/
Dune: Part Two: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/
Dune: Part Two releases on March 1st. I will use the cumulative domestic total for both movies as of May 1st. For an example of the number I will use, Morbius released on April 1st, and as of June 1st its cumulative domestic total was $73,315,763.
If Madame Web has grossed $50M by May 1st, then this question resolves YES if Dune: Part Two has grossed >$200M, and NO if it has grossed <=$200M.
(If the result looks mathematically certain, I may resolve this market early, rather than waiting the full two months.)
Note: I also made a version of this question using the worldwide gross. It was looking very lopsided towards Dune, so I wanted to add a domestic-only market which could be a touch more balanced (we'll see).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ74 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
In the description, I say I can resolve this early if it's mathematically certain. Madame Web was largely pulled from the box office 10 days ago, and only earns trivial amounts from its remaining theaters https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/1769381207043887183
Its domestic total won't reach $45M, 4X that is $180M, and Dune 2 is already >$230M (and will keep climbing). So I'm going to resolve this early.
Once more, into the breach... seems a 4x handicap wasn't enough to make the domestic gross competitive. The natural follow-up is to give "Madame Web" a 3,700% handicap during Dune's opening weekend.
Related market: Will "Dune: Part Two" have (domestic) gross >37 times larger than "Madame Web" during the weekend of March 1-3?