Will "Dune: Part Two" have worldwide gross more than 4X greater than that of "Madame Web" (2 months after release)
resolved Apr 4

BoxOfficeMojo is the data source:

I will use the number listed as "WORLDWIDE" (under "GROSSES") for both. I will check BoxOfficeMojo two months after the release of "Dune: Part Two", i.e. May 1st, and use the listed gross for both movies as of that date. [1]

For example, Morbius (currently) lists a worldwide (WW) gross of $167,635,712. If you multiply that by 4, you get $670.5M. This would count as larger than the WW gross of Dune (2020) ($402,027,830), but less than the WW gross of Oppenheimer ($956,203,295).

If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask and I will clarify.

[1]. Note that this may not fully include all gross that occurs before May 1st (as BoxOfficeMojo may not have updated much). I doubt that this will change the result, but I like to set a concrete end date for my box office markets so they don't drag on beyond the point of being interesting. Keep that in mind.

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I'm calling this one—Dune 2 is at >630M, Madame Web is stuck <100M, and has functionally ended its run, many tens of millions short. RIP to Madame Web. You can predict Dune 2's final WW total here (will it reach 700M? 725M?):

As this market is looking pretty lopsided, I made a domestic-only version, which could be a tiny bit more balanced (we'll see).

Market: "Will "Dune: Part Two" have DOMESTIC gross >4X greater than that of "Madame Web" (two months after release)"

predicted NO

To help with pricing, @mattyb 's market (currently) gives ~coinflip to Madame Web grossing >$163M WW.

And here's the market for Dune 2's WW gross (~50% to pass 600M).

(As 4 x $163M -> $650M, that means this trio isn't quite in sync, but hard to say which is off)