resolved Mar 15

"Dune: Part Two" (2024) Metacritic page:

  • I will resolve based on the Metascore on March 15th (two weeks after release).

  • This is based on critics, not audiences. For example, "Dune: Part One" (2021) currently lists a Metascore of 74.

  • I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, & I won't try to compute that myself).

  • To compare with other films by Vilenueve, "Incendies" has a Metascore of 80 and would thus resolve NO, while "Bladerunner 2049" has a Metascore of 81 and would resolve YES. "Sicario" and "Arrival" also have Metascore >80.

Other details:

  • I don't expect the score to be shifting much two weeks after release, but just in case, it will resolve based on what I see whenever I happen to check on that date (I can't guarantee exactly what time I'll be free to resolve it).

  • If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.

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Let's run this back for the second big sci-fi movie event of the year. Will "Furiosa" have a Metacritic score >80?


@traders This resolves NO, following the "two weeks after release" timeframe stated in the description (although there hasn't been a new review posted in the last ~10 days, so I don't think it ended up being very close).

"Dune: Part Two" is still in theaters! Check out my markets for its 3rd weekend gross or whether it'll win its 3rd weekend against KFP4. Or check out more Metacritic markets for upcoming movies: Monkey Man, Godzilla X Kong, Civil War & many more. (Yay for movies being back).

There hasn’t been a new review added in a while. But just in case it’s still fluctuating, for consistency, I’ll aim to check and resolve this around 10:30 PT on Friday (so there’s no wiggle room with what reviews to include)

Edit: consistency is great but seems I have a work meeting at noon so I switched it to 10:30 PT (almost zero chance any of this makes a difference to be clear)

Mick LaSalle's pan in the SF Chronicle has dropped the Metacritic score to 78 (surprising given the high RT score). But a large number of reviews should be added over the next two weeks.

The first reviews are out. The current Metacritic score I see is exactly 80 (which would resolve this NO). But there will probably be 30+ more reviews that stream in, & it'd take almost nothing to push it to 81. Might be a nailbiter.

@Ziddletwix oh no I'm getting barbie flashbacks

@Stralor was there a barbie market right near the RT/metacritic threshold? (wasn't on manifold back then).

There was a movie a couple of months ago (I think Wonka?) that was wobbling RIGHT near the remarkably precise 83% threshold the market picked way in advance.

(I picked 80 as a rough over/under, which seems to have been spot on, but I admit if I knew the RT score would be >95% I would have assumed MC would clear 80 pretty easily)

@Ziddletwix yeah and due to the criteria that req'd the score to stabilize it went wild, constantly flipping back and forth over the threshold. I made a bunch just in volatility trading but it was very chaotic, big swings.

@Stralor spot-on market specs are the best

Closely related market: Will "Dune: Part Two" receive >50% as many perfect scores (i.e. 100) from critics on Metacritic as "Oppenheimer"?

For the Rotten Tomatoes score, I wanted to try predicting it with a bit more precision, so I made it a market with a bunch of independent options:

Related market: "Will "Dune: Part Two" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?"

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