Will "Civil War" (2024) be the highest grossing A24 film worldwide? (>111M, for EEAAO)
Basic
21
3.4k
resolved Jul 9
Resolved
NO

A24 has been enormously successful as an indie studio, but they have ambitions to enter the mainstream. "Civil War" (2024) is an early big swing, carrying the largest budget for the studio to date.

Currently, the A24 film with the highest worldwide gross is the Oscar-sweeping "Everything Everywhere All At Once", with $111,419,433. This market resolves YES if "Civil War" (2024) grosses more than $111,419,433 at the worldwide box office, within three months of release (i.e. July 8th).

I will use the-numbers.com as the source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Civil-War-(2024)#tab=box-office.

For example, the "Worldwide Box Office" for EEAAO is $111,419,433. This is the equivalent number I will use.

I may end this market early if the result appears certain.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ989
2Ṁ64
3Ṁ28
4Ṁ26
5Ṁ25
Sort by:

This resolves NO.

As noted in the earlier comment/warning, these #s are a bit weird—BOM lists $121M for "Civil War". But it also lists $143M for EEAAO. I think the BOM numbers are probably more accurate, but the descirption was extremely clear that I'd just resolve based on the-numbers, so that's what I'll do. (Luckily, while the 106M is suspicious, BOM does directionally agree that this is NO, EEAAO had higher WW gross).

In the future I'll try to stick to BOM for WW gross. (Both can definitely be inaccurate, WW grosses are weird/badly reported, but the-numbers seems to more often list odd results like this).

@traders Want to flag a warning about resolution. As stated in the description, I will follow whatever the-numbers.com lists as the WW grosses for the two films (both Civil War & EEAAO).

I'm flagging this because looking at it now, it seems the-numbers.com might be differing a bit from other sources. For EEAAO, it lists only $111M, while some other sources (e.g. BOM) list more like ~$143M. That's a bit strange, and if I had noticed it earlier, I would have looked a bit more carefully to see which source better reflected the consensus.

Still, this market's description is unambiguous. The title explains that the threshold is >$111M, and the description is very clear that I will use the-numbers.com as the source, NOT pick & choose whatever I think is best. And this is pretty typical for box office reporting—no website is totally reliable, ESPECIALLY for international numbers (where there can be substantial disagreement).

So, bet with caution, and note that I will follow the market description, even if it disagrees with other sources. If you were somehow misled (although I doubt it) LMK & I'm sure I can managram you what you lost (uh before may 15th when managrams go away)

More related questions