Will Argentina's inflation in August 2024 be >255%? (July = 263%)
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resolved Sep 16
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NO

Data source: OECD. Here are the (equivalent) recent monthly values:

  • 2024-Jan: 254.25%

  • 2024-Feb: 276.22%

  • 2024-Mar: 287.87%

  • 2024-Apr: 289.40%

  • 2024-May: 276.41%

  • 2024-June: 271.53%

  • 2024-July: 263.45%


This question is based on an existing Kalshi market—more details on resolution can be found there.

This market will close on September 9th, and I expect the official OECD numbers within the ~10 days after that.

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#Latin America
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down all the way to 236.72%—easy NO

bought Ṁ350 NO

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom has the monthly numbers, though I didn't check for consistency.

August 2023 is 12.4%, which is rolling off. Looks like we need about a 10% monthly inflation for August 2024 to hit this. (3.6345/1.124)*1.10 = 3.557, which would be a 256% inflation. It's been 4-5% for the last few months.

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