(This market is less clear cut than the ones I usually run, so please read the full description before placing any predictions.)
Last year, EDO ranked the efficacy of Super Bowl ads using their "engagement index": https://topads.edo.com/resources/superbowl-lvii/. The trailer for "The Flash" ranked #1 out of all ads, and there was a wave of headlines crowning it the winner of the night (in Hollywood).
This market will resolve to the movie whose trailer (or teaser) has the best placement in the EDO rankings.
Next, some critical caveats.
What counts as a movie trailer:
"Trailer": I'm using a very flexible definition—any ad that's clearly promoting a single upcoming movie release should count (certainly all teasers count, length isn't a problem).
For reference, while "The Flash" was the highest ranking trailer last year, the next (valid) runner-ups I see in the ranking are (2) "Amazon Studios: Air", (3) "Universal Pictures: Fast X", (4) "Universal Pictures: Cocaine Bear", and (5) "Disney: Guardians of the Galaxy V3".
I would not have included "Disney 100" (not promoting a single movie), or "Peacock: Poker Face" (TV show). (LMK if you there's anything I got wrong under my definition, I haven't carefully watched all of these trailers).
The trailer doesn't need to be new (although the movie can't have been released yet).
EDO rankings:
This market assumes that (1) EDO ranks the efficacy of the ads at Super Bowl LVIII, and (2) I am able to somehow see which movie trailer had the best rank.
This seems like a reasonable assumption—their publicly released ranking last year got a lot of good press, so I'd imagine they'll do it again.
Plus, even if the full ranking isn't made public, typically other news outlets will report on what topped the list.
E.g. I don't have the full 2022 ranking, but the top 10 was reported and "Netflix - The Adam Project" (at #9) is the highest ranking trailer (this would still count). All I'll require is reasonably clear evidence that EDO ranked a movie trailer above the rest.
But, if EDO does not compute a ranking, or it's impossible for me to tell which movie trailer had the best rank (e.g. maybe they only release the top 5, and none of them are movie trailers), I plan to resolve this market N/A (once it's clear we'll never get a clear answer).
Last year EDO called this the "engagement index" but I won't be picky about the name—whatever EDO uses to rank the efficacy of ads will count.
If there are any aspects of resolution that are unclear, please ask! I'd be happy to revise and improve the question.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ182 | |
| 2 | Ṁ39 | |
| 3 | Ṁ29 | |
| 4 | Ṁ23 | |
| 5 | Ṁ13 |
Overall, trailers performed extremely well this year. (Probably helped by a lot of other industries dialing back their ad spend).
#1 Deadpool
#2 Wicked
#6 Twisters
#10 Shogun (TV)
#11 Monkey Man
#13 A Quiet Place
#17 Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
#27 Halo (TV)
#29 IF
Last year, trailers weren't nearly as dominant.
The rankings have been released: https://www.edo.com/super-bowl-lviii-ad-rankings
Both of the top two overall commercials were trailers. DEADPOOL wins at #1 (as expected by this market), but FWIW WICKED came extremely close to an upset, just ~10% behind or so (whereas no other commercial came close to the top 2).TWISTERS came in 3rd among commercials, at #6 overall.
This resolves to DEADPOOL
@mattyb Wicked was my hope for the upset—bummed it came up short. Although seeing the teaser does make me a bit more bearish on some of the more ambitious box office projections. It can be hard to pitch stuff that's ultra-Broadway (in terms of tone/presentation) to mass movie audiences. (Plus, they'd clearly rather not admit it's a "Part one")
I haven't looked carefully for all past years (AFAIK only in 2023 did they post it as a nice pretty public list), but it seems that in 2020 they posted a top 5, and the winner would have been Fast & Furious 9 (with No Time To Die as the runner-up) https://www.edo.com/resources/super-bowl-liv-ad-rankings
More coverage of what trailers to expect: https://deadline.com/2024/02/super-bowl-movie-trailers-2024-preview-1235815081/
https://variety.com/2024/film/news/super-bowl-movie-trailers-wicked-deadpool-3-1235898197/
This Variety article previews some of the trailers that are expected (and not expected). Feel free to add your own options to the list (although I'd rather you not add any movies that are extremely unlikely to run a trailer, to avoid people being misled and placing bad bets).