Which EXACT combination of the 7 swing states will Trump win?
➕
Plus
56
Ṁ10k
resolved Nov 10
100%19%
Wins all 7
15%
Loses all 7
1.2%
Loses only NV (wins the other 6)
0.9%
Loses only WI (wins the other 6)
1.4%
Loses only MI (wins the other 6)
4%
Loses only WI & MI (wins the other 5)
18%
Loses only WI, MI, & PA (wins the other 4)
18%
Wins only AZ, GA, & NC (loses the other 4)
2%
Wins only AZ (loses the other 6)
0.7%
Loses only NC (wins the other 6)
0.7%
Wins only AZ & NV (loses the other 5)
19%Other

The 7 "swing states" are: Arizona (AZ), Georgia (GA), North Carolina (NC), Nevada (NV), Pennsylvania (PA), Michigan (MI), & Wisconsin (WI).

You can add options, but they must specify a unique combination of states (& I may edit the wording).

Resolves according to the AP call for each state.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

The AP called arizona last night. This can now resolve. Trump wins all 7.

this market only requires the AP call but looks like the AP hasn't called AZ & NV

bought Ṁ150 Loses only WI, MI, &... NO

From Nate as of 10/22:

Wins all 7 - 24.4%
Loses only WI, MI, & PA (wins the other 4) - 2.2%
Loses all 7 - 15.3%
Wins only AZ, GA, & NC (loses the other 4) - 2.9%
Loses only NV (wins the other 6) - 4.6%
Loses only WI & MI (wins the other 5) - 1.9%
Wins only AZ (loses the other 6) - 3.4%
Wins only AZ & NV (loses the other 5) - 1.9%
Loses only WI (wins the other 6) - 2.6%
Loses only MI (wins the other 6) - 1.9%
Loses only NC (wins the other 6) - 0.5%

bought Ṁ20 Loses all 7 YES

I put a little on both wins all 7 and loses all 7. Am thinking that the states are correlated enough that both sweep percentages should be even higher.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules