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MANIFOLD
[short-fuse] Will "Ordinary Angels" gross >$5 million during its opening weekend?
7
Ṁ150Ṁ2.3k
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve YES if "Ordinary Angels" (2024) grosses more than $5,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend.

Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt4996328/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 will be used to resolve this market.

  • I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "American Underdog" (same director) would have been $5,861,836.

  • For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.

"Ordinary Angels" is a "faith-based" movie releasing on February 23rd with the following premise:

Inspired by the incredible true story of a hairdresser who single-handedly rallies an entire community to help a widowed father save the life of his critically ill young daughter.

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bought Ṁ42 YES

Resolves YES

@Ziddletwix (Usually, I optionally wait until the BOM daily estimates have been finalized before resolution. For some reason, BOM hasn't updated any of their numbers since Monday—no clue why. The number they list is nowhere near the threshold, and the "actual" dailies have been reported by all other outlets for several days, and are very close to this number, so I can safely resolve this)

Is BOM down or what?

@mattyb they must be trying to force me into a liquidity crunch. buy all my assets for cheap when I have to sell

(FWIW, given that more official looking totals are available elsewhere, if BOM continues not to finalize I can just resolve it regardless. my description doesn't specify the "estimated" vs final distinction, I assume it'd be fair game. but I do prefer to stick to my typical schedule when possible).

@Ziddletwix yea, i’m not in a rush, but i’ve never seen them be this slow before. and it’s not even a holiday weekend.

@Ziddletwix i.e. i can resolve now if anyone needs it, otherwise i'd probably default to giving BOM until early tmrw morning and then resolving regardless. (the only reason I wouldn't resolve all now is that the drive away dolls market is at least ~plausibly close so it'd be nice to get the BOM numbers, but I could always leave that one for longer, it's nice to be consistent)

@Ziddletwix i think BOM is having real issues. They haven’t put up a daily box office since Sunday. I’ve never seen it that bad

@mattyb Yeah it's genuinely strange. No updates to the dailies since 1PM on Monday (no tweets, etc). I'm going to resolve these (maybe I'll leave Drive Away Dolls for a day or two more as it's the only one that's plausibly close)

@Ziddletwix ok it finally updated. (I could add that to my resolutions but doubt there's any need)