MANIFOLD
[SHORT FUSE] Will the ten current favorites be tomorrow's exact Best Picture lineup? (2025 Oscars)
11
Ṁ1kṀ1.2k
resolved Jan 23
Resolved
NO

At the time of market creation, Kalshi, Polymarket, GoldDerby, & most other aggregate sources have settled on the following ten films as the most likely to receive Best Picture nominations:

  • 1. Conclave

  • 2. Emilia Perez

  • 3. The Brutalist

  • 4. Anora

  • 5. Wicked

  • 6. A Complete Unknown

  • 7. Dune: Part Two

  • 8. The Substance

  • 9. A Real Pain

  • 10. Sing Sing

This market resolves YES if these ten films are the exact ten films nominated for Best Picture. Resolves NO if any are omitted or any other films receive Best Picture nominations.

  • The title refers to "tomorrow" as that's the current scheduled announcement date, but that's irrelevant for resolution (it it gets postponed again I'll just extend the market).

  • Notable omissions from this list include Nickel Boys, September 5, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Challengers, The Wild Robot, & Gladiator 2.

  • This market will close before the announcement.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ280
2Ṁ92
3Ṁ48
4Ṁ48
5Ṁ27
Sort by:

All who think they know the Academy are cursed with folly. Nickel Boys (great movie!!) and I'm Still Here (???) are IN.

Now bet on the winners: full Oscars dashboard

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy