These options resolve YES if Tim Walz says the exact sequence of words during his first debate with JD Vance, currently scheduled for October 1st on CBS.
This will follow the same rules as the Trump-isms Debate Megamarket—see the original market for more detailed resolution examples.
You can add your own responses, but note (1) I intend to be strict with resolution (following the rules below), & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.
See the prop bets market for more flexible options.
Resolution might take a few days because I'd like to consult the transcript.
This will likely close before the debate to return liquidity to submitters.
Resolution examples:
Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".
Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".
However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").
An abbreviation is its own word: "MAGA" does not match "Make America Great Again", "LGBT" does not match "LGBTQ".
Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" matches "January sixth".
To add flexibility to an answer, use parentheses or an "or". So " 'Free lunch(es)' or 'school lunch(es)' " matches "free lunches", "school lunch", & etc.
@traders I finished resolving—please LMK if you think I made any mistakes!
BIGGEST MISSES (overall this market was pretty plausibly calibrated):
“Concept of a plan”: 20% -> YES
"IVF" or "in vitro fertilization”: 75% -> NO
@Kraalnaxx if you want to live trade you're always welcome to managram me the 2k liquidity it costs!
Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".
plurals would count if it was “Haitian(s)”
@PlasmaBallin This is pretty clear, but just to follow the format of other options, I'll change this from "Extreme(ist)" -> "Extreme or Extremist" (as technically under current formatting it'd check for "extremeist")
Just three days until the debate, so not expecting a ton of action here, but to celebrate the return of unique trader bonuses I spun up a quick market for old time's sake.
(Low base liquidity, so I'll try and keep NO limit orders up at some price for each option when I have the time)