[SHORT FUSE] Walz-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Tim Walz say during the VP debate?
Standard
106
Ṁ23k
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
YES
"Abortion"
Resolved
YES
"Project 2025"
Resolved
YES
"Gun(s)" or "hunting"
Resolved
YES
"Ohio"
Resolved
YES
"National guard"
Resolved
YES
"Wrote"
Resolved
YES
"Coach"
Resolved
YES
"VC" or "venture capital" or "venture capitalist"
Resolved
NO
"IVF" or "in vitro fertilization"
Resolved
NO
"Mind(ing) your own damn business"
Resolved
NO
"Extreme" or "extremist"
Resolved
NO
"School lunch(es)" or "free lunch(es)"
Resolved
NO
"Illegal(s)"
Resolved
NO
"Yale"
Resolved
NO
"Weird"
Resolved
NO
"Cat(s)"
Resolved
NO
"Haitian"
Resolved
NO
"LGBT(Q)"
Resolved
NO
"We're not going back"
Resolved
NO
"Authoritarian"

These options resolve YES if Tim Walz says the exact sequence of words during his first debate with JD Vance, currently scheduled for October 1st on CBS.

  • This will follow the same rules as the Trump-isms Debate Megamarket—see the original market for more detailed resolution examples.

  • You can add your own responses, but note (1) I intend to be strict with resolution (following the rules below), & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.

  • Resolution might take a few days because I'd like to consult the transcript.

  • This will likely close before the debate to return liquidity to submitters.

Resolution examples:

  • Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".

  • Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".

  • However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").

  • An abbreviation is its own word: "MAGA" does not match "Make America Great Again", "LGBT" does not match "LGBTQ".

  • Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" matches "January sixth".

  • To add flexibility to an answer, use parentheses or an "or". So " 'Free lunch(es)' or 'school lunch(es)' " matches "free lunches", "school lunch", & etc.

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@traders I finished resolving—please LMK if you think I made any mistakes!

BIGGEST MISSES (overall this market was pretty plausibly calibrated):

  • “Concept of a plan”: 20% -> YES

  • "IVF" or "in vitro fertilization”: 75% -> NO 

@Ziddletwix I mean not letting us live trade was a mistake but I suppose that's subjective

@Kraalnaxx if you want to live trade you're always welcome to managram me the 2k liquidity it costs!

"Haitian"

@Ziddletwix Does Walz saying Haitians count for this?

@Kraalnaxx

  • Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".

plurals would count if it was “Haitian(s)”

I won't be resolving this live—I prefer to wait for the transcript (+ recording to cross reference) to minimize the chance of a mistake (these resolutions get messed up all the time). I expect a solid transcript will be available sometime tmrw, so it won't take long.

"Extreme" or "extremist"

@PlasmaBallin This is pretty clear, but just to follow the format of other options, I'll change this from "Extreme(ist)" -> "Extreme or Extremist" (as technically under current formatting it'd check for "extremeist")

opened a Ṁ690 Answer #c4t4olme37 NO at 20% order

Just three days until the debate, so not expecting a ton of action here, but to celebrate the return of unique trader bonuses I spun up a quick market for old time's sake.

(Low base liquidity, so I'll try and keep NO limit orders up at some price for each option when I have the time)