Nate Silver's election forecast model (Silver Bulletin) currently includes RFK in its calculations. He recently said on Twitter that if RFK drops out, he'll need to update the model to exclude him.

This market resolves based on the "Electoral College Probability" for Kamala Harris displayed on Silver Bulletin for the first model update that excludes RFK.

• If RFK does not drop out before the election, this market resolves N/A. (I will follow the resolution of this market). If Nate Silver never updates the model to exclude RFK, it resolves N/A.

• I am guessing that the "first post-RFK model probability" will be easy to determine because it'll be announced by a blogpost, but if not, I will do my best to look for the first reported probability.

• Again, this is not the probability displayed by the model at the moment RFK drops out of the race—it's the probability after RFK has been excluded from the model.

• At the time of question creation, Kamala Harris' Electoral College probability is 53.7% (so if unchanged, it would resolve to the [52%, 54%] bucket).