Will RFK Jr. drop out before election day?
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Ṁ370k
resolved Aug 23
Resolved
YES

This question resolves YES if before November 5th 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.

An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.

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This is from his website. He is still taking donations.

https://www.kennedy24.com/donate

'Although RFK Jr. has suspended his campaign, it is far from over. His name remains on the ballot in 40 states, with a viable path to victory through securing 270 electoral votes or triggering a contingent election. Team Kennedy continues to mobilize grassroots and volunteer efforts across all 50 states, demonstrating their unwavering commitment. Here’s why your donations are crucial:'

This suspension does not appear 'tantamount to the termination of his campaign'.

Am honestly surprised this doesn’t happen more often

It’s effectively the case, as they basically spend zero time, money, or effort in blue states. But for appearances sake and party morale, they stay on the ballot (which is ~free).

Rather than give a third-party candidate a chance to whittle more electoral votes from their opponent and divide their attention?

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 95% order

just placed a NO limit order at 95%, expiring tomorrow morning, if anyone wants it

reports are that even though Nicole's encouraging him to drop out, Bobby hasn't decided yet.

The rumours are that he will drop out and endorse Trump tomorrow.

/SimonGrayson/will-rfk-jr-drop-out-of-the-preside

Of course this comes out after bed time for ya boy lolll.

I'm hedging my positions here with the "and endorse trump before sept 1" question now lol.

He has stated several times endorsing trump would be "end of his marriage" lol so im counting on him NOT wanting to do so.

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 98% order

If you're so certain he's dropping out, you should probably bet these down:

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/how-much-of-the-popular-vote-will-r-8838a594cb5d

Did he drop?

Not yet, but I'm not sure what else this could mean

https://x.com/StefanieSpear/status/1826316202710360568

ah gotcha, thanks!

This jumped so high in the past few days I almost want to buy more 'no'. I saw the reports but still surprised!

Yeah I think it's really hard to predict what RFK Jr will do, but his fans seem very unhappy about the news judging by their subreddit.

sold Ṁ774 YES

Hey guys, I'm out on this. He seems to be remaining steadfast.

reposted

IMO once you publicly say you're considering dropping out, it makes it pretty likely:

Kamala/Walz want nothing to do with this sad man! Even the Trump handling him with the gloves!

sold Ṁ658 YES

Okay but damn, not 87% likely. I'm selling some shares.

Remember when RFK let rumors swirl around his running mate being Aaron Rodgers just to get media attention?

He is a bit slippery, I'm sitting this one out. But I don't think his followers would like it if he backs trump.

@Joshua Does it make a difference that it was Nicole who mentioned this instead of RFK himself? I've had the sense that they're not always on the same page at times.

Sometime around mid-2023, Ian became captured by the algorithm.

RFK Jr. voters are probably not monolithic and homogeneous. But of course they are if you want to tell a very specific story.

The tweet’s not saying they’re homogenous at all though? It’s actually showing the opposite. Significant portions of Kennedy supporters are flipping to both Trump and Harris, and many are still sticking with Kennedy.

bought Ṁ25 NO

What I infer from this is that RFK had a sizable contingent of voters who would vote for Harris but not for Biden or Trump, and then those voters returned to the Democrats after Biden dropped out. The remainder of RFK's support may split one way or the other if he drops out.