How will Deadline rank the top 5 biggest box office bombs of 2023? (Resolves to %)
5
495Ṁ2425
resolved May 3
Resolved
YES
The Marvels
Resolved
80%
The Flash
Resolved
60%
Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
Resolved
40%
Wish
Resolved
20%
The Haunted Mansion
Resolved
NO
Fast X
Resolved
NO
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantummania
Resolved
NO
Beau Is Afraid
Resolved
NO
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Resolved
NO
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Resolved
NO
Shazam: Fury of the Gods

In April 2023, Deadline ranked the biggest box office bombs of 2022, as part of their "Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament".

Within the next month or so, I expect they will do the same for the films of 2023. This market resolves based on the ranking of the top 5 films that they list.

  • The #1 biggest box office bomb resolves to 100%.

  • #2 resolves to 80%.

  • #3 resolves to 60%.

  • #4 resolves to 40%.

  • #5 resolves to 20%.

  • All others resolve to 0%.

For reference, here is the ranking for the films of 2022 (the relevant number here is the "STUDIO NET"):

  • 1. Strange World: -$197M

  • 2. Amsterdam: -$108M

  • 3. Lightyear: -$106M

  • 4. Devotion: -$89M

  • 5. Babylon: -$87M

Thus, last year, "Strange World" would have resolved to 100%, "Amsterdam" to 80%, and so on.

  • To be clear, this market refers to movies that have already been released. However, this is still a challenging prediction task (as we don't have access to Deadline's data).

  • Each movie resolves to their actual ranking in the article, not relative within this market. Thus, if the #2 ranked movie is missing from this market, then options will resolve at 100% & 60% but not 80% (but you can add your own options if I'm missing any).

  • If Deadline does not release any such ranking within the first half of 2024, the market will resolve N/A.

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bought Ṁ25 NO1y

@traders Deadline dropped the list! https://deadline.com/2024/05/biggest-box-office-bombs-2023-lowest-grossing-movies-1235902825/

  1. The Marvels, -237M. resolves to 100%

  2. The Flash, -155M. resolves to 80%.

  3. Indy 5, -143M. resolves to 60%

  4. Wish, -131M. resolves to 40%

  5. Haunted Mansion, -117M. resolves to 20%. (it wasn't on the market, so I added it for completeness)

The rest will all resolve at 0, they are outside the top 5 (actually, turns out this time Deadline only listed exactly 5. Glad they didn't cut it even shorter)

1y

My semi-educated guesses:

  • 1. DoD: -$200M

  • 2. The Marvels: -$150M

  • 3. Fast X: -$130M

  • 4. The Flash: -$120M

  • 5. Wish: -$100M

  • 6. Ant-Man Q: -$90M

  • 7. Shazam! FoTG: -$70M

  • 8. RG:TK: -$60M

  • 9. MI:DR: -$50M

  • 10. BiA: -$35M

1y

@VaibhavGupta Seems plausible to me! Yeah this year feels extra tricky. Lots of movies with potentially enormous budgets from Covid delays, so you see some truly astronomical potential loss estimates out there. The original market I made for just #1 thought The Marvels was most likely (so you can get a good price if you bet there for DoD!), but I too was leaning towards DoD (not super confident though, these things are hard to estimate).

In 2022, Deadline's "loss" estimates seemed mostly fairly favorable-ish to the studios, but there were fewer of these mega-budget, many-year-production movies to deal with. (Much harder to account for Fast X's budget than Babylon)

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