RENOIR vs KUO-SUNG: which painting will sell for more at Sotheby's April 5th Hong Kong auction? (pics included)
12
88
320
resolved Apr 8
100%99.5%
RENOIR - Un Jardin à Sorrente
0.5%
KUO-SUNG - Midnight Sun

This market is a duel between two expensive paintings listed for sale at Sotheby's "Modern & Contemporary Evening Auction" in Hong Kong.

Thus, the Kuo-Sung has a slightly higher average estimate, but the range is extremely wide so I don't think the result is certain.

This market resolves to the painting which sells for a higher value at auction.

Resolution details:

  • Example from a past auction: This painting by Vigée Le Brun sold for 3,085,000 USD. This is the number I will use.

  • Edge cases:

    • If either painting is withdrawn before the auction, or I am unable to determine the sale price, it resolves N/A.

    • If one fails to sell at the auction, it resolves to the other.

    • If there's a tie or they both fail to sell at the auction, both resolve at 50%.

    • If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.

PIERRE-AUGUSTE RENOIR - Un Jardin à Sorrente

Pierre-Auguste Renoir... (was a) French painter originally associated with the Impressionist movement. His early works were typically Impressionist snapshots of real life, full of sparkling colour and light. Renoir mastered the ability to convey his immediate visual impressions, and his paintings showed great vitality, emphasizing the pleasures of life despite the financial worries that troubled him. (source)

LIU KUO-SUNG - Midnight Sun

In a career spanning seven decades, Liu Kuo-sung (Liu Guosong, born 1932 in China) has singlehandedly reinvented the millennium-old tradition of ink painting. His abstract landscapes and cosmographs subvert established conventions of brushwork and composition to embrace expansive visions of the cosmos. (source)

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@traders The auction is complete! The Renoir did extremely well, and sold for 24,347,500 HKD, far above its estimates ($3.1M USD). Bravo. However, the Kuo-Sung did not sell. Here's what I wrote in the description:

If either painting is withdrawn before the auction, or I am unable to determine the sale price, it resolves N/A.

If one fails to sell at the auction, it resolves to the other.

My assumption is that the Kuo-Sung was withdrawn because it failed to sell at the auction, and thus this market would resolve to RENOIR. However, technically if it was withdrawn before the auction, this market should resolve N/A (according to my original description). I can't find any evidence that it was withdrawn prior to the auction (when I last checked a few days ago, it was still there, & it's common for paintings to not sell if they fail to reach the minimum reserve). So currently I'm planning to resolve in favor of Renoir.

This is an edge case, so I'm very open to feedback. If traders feel that it should resolve N/A, then I'm fine with that as well! I'll wait several days before resolving, in case anyone has any input. (Or better, evidence that it was withdrawn before or during the auction). And in the future, I'll probably update my descriptions to avoid an edge case like this (basically, since the website doesn't say when a painting was withdrawn, I'll just treat all such cases as "did not sell").

TL;DR: Renoir did very well, Kuo-Sung failed to sell. I think I'll resolve to Renoir because my best guess is Kuo-Sung simply failed to sell at auction, but if people here think that the Kuo-Sung might have been pulled before the auction, I'm open to feedback and I can resolve this N/A. (I wouldn't resolve to Kuo-Sung under any circumstance). I'll wait a few days. Thanks!

@Ziddletwix With no concerns raised in the last 3 days, I'll resolve this for Renoir. (although if that's a mistake I can probably have the mods N/A).

Last chance to bet on Matisse vs Salvador Dali:

bought Ṁ100 KUO-SUNG - Midnight Sun

Nice one, putting my mana based on aesthetics, that Renoir seems kitsch to me