Resolves to based on "Backrooms" opening weekend domestic gross, according to BoxOfficeMojo.
E.g., for comparison, the "domestic opening" for "Iron Lung" was $17.8M.
"Backrooms" is an upcoming A24 movie based on the popular YouTube short films.
I may add higher buckets if necessary.
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I think some people are underrating the strong possibility that this will be very front loaded. 73% chance of more than 80 million seems a bit too high to me. (between other and 80/90 buckets. ) Could happen obviously but from what I see the most aggressive official trackers are showing 68-75 million at the high end. Box office theory, which projections are more heavily weighted to recent events has it at 68. What are some sources that I'm missing?
https://deadline.com/2026/05/backrooms-box-office-projection-1236886257/ according to Deadline, Backrooms just debuted on tracking with a projected ~$20m opening.
@bens yeah if it goes insanely high above pre release tracking, the reason will obvious—tracking is bad at capturing Gen Z/alpha interest in viral-ish stuff (iron lung, Minecraft, etc, to pick a few hits with strong roots on YouTube).
So cannot be surprised if it breaks out, but that doesn’t make it a super safe bet (although I do think the tracking is more like the ~floor). Argument against is basically just A24 base rate—even as they scale up (with civil war/marty/other big budgets), mid 20s is still the largest a24 opening. That’s not just the material they choose, the major studios still operate at a different scale on many levels.
So I haven’t been tracking box office in a while but I think this is an unusually interesting case where a few weeks out I think anywhere from 15-35 seems very plausible (and higher or lower wouldn’t be all that shocking either).
@Ziddletwix It's gonna be 2-3x your expectations?? Although I think backrooms is much more genpop than Iron Lung, and there haven't been many good new movies lately.
@Kire_ yup way off although tbh I think the above holds up fairly well because while early expectations (tracking, traders here, etc) were far lower, I specifically made this market (as mentioned in the comment) because this seemed like a case where the chance for an outlier breakout above early tracking (and other A24 comps) was unusually high, and that’s exactly what’s happening =)