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MANIFOLD
"Avatar: Fire and Ash" worldwide box office?
23
Ṁ1kṀ17k
resolved Mar 19
100%99.0%
1.4 - 1.6 billion
0.4%
1.6 - 1.8 billion
0.2%
1.8 - 2.0 billion
0.2%
2.0 - 2.2 billion
0.2%
2.2 - 2.4 billion
0.1%Other

Resolution source: BoxOfficeMojo, "WORLDWIDE".

  • For comparison, "Avatar: The Way of Water" has a current worldwide gross of $2,343,477,301.

  • This market is based on the initial theatrical release (not re-releases).

  • I won't necessarily wait to resolve until Avatar 3 is no longer earning any money in theaters—rather, I'll wait until there have been multiple consecutive weeks with sufficiently small grosses that it's abundantly clear it won't reach the next bucket.

  • The initial buckets cover 1.4B - 2.4B (with higher and lower results both covered by "Other"), but if it seems likely to over or undershoot I can add additional buckets.

  • Update 2026-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the initial theatrical release will not reach 1.6B worldwide box office, and the market will resolve accordingly (below 1.6B bucket).

Market context
TV & Movies
Hollywood
Box-Office
Cinema
Dune
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@Ziddletwix I think it's abundantly clear that the initial theatrical release won't reach 1.6B.

@Dssc agreed

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