Resolution source: BoxOfficeMojo, "WORLDWIDE".

• For comparison, "Avatar: The Way of Water" has a current worldwide gross of $2,343,477,301.

• This market is based on the initial theatrical release (not re-releases).

• I won't necessarily wait to resolve until Avatar 3 is no longer earning any money in theaters—rather, I'll wait until there have been multiple consecutive weeks with sufficiently small grosses that it's abundantly clear it won't reach the next bucket.

• The initial buckets cover 1.4B - 2.4B (with higher and lower results both covered by "Other"), but if it seems likely to over or undershoot I can add additional buckets.

• Update 2026-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the initial theatrical release will not reach 1.6B worldwide box office, and the market will resolve accordingly (below 1.6B bucket).