Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before May 2022?
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38Ṁ776resolved May 2
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Apr 1, 10:00am: also see https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-8a28bb2d8f84 and https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-98bd98d373e6 for markets for "before june" and "before july". Thanks @JonathanMohrbacher for the insightful comments.
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Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers and their lower-level negotiating teams have been meeting in Istanbul. Medinsky (Russian negotiator) has described these talks as constructive. But he also signaled that Putin and Zelensky won't meet until AFTER an agreement is ready for signing. https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/putin-zelensky-meeting-possible-only-after-agreement-ready-russia-122033000081_1.html.
I suppose that saying this could just be part of the bargaining process. But assuming this actually how things work out, this market is predicting whether the two sides will produce a deal ready for signing before May 1. Even though I'm hopeful that April will be a productive month for diplomacy, I'm doubtful that a deal will be mature enough for SIGNING by the end of it.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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