Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before May 2022?
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Apr 1, 10:00am: also see https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-8a28bb2d8f84 and https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-vladimir-putin-and-volodymyr-z-98bd98d373e6 for markets for "before june" and "before july". Thanks @JonathanMohrbacher for the insightful comments.
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Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers and their lower-level negotiating teams have been meeting in Istanbul. Medinsky (Russian negotiator) has described these talks as constructive. But he also signaled that Putin and Zelensky won't meet until AFTER an agreement is ready for signing. https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/putin-zelensky-meeting-possible-only-after-agreement-ready-russia-122033000081_1.html.
I suppose that saying this could just be part of the bargaining process. But assuming this actually how things work out, this market is predicting whether the two sides will produce a deal ready for signing before May 1. Even though I'm hopeful that April will be a productive month for diplomacy, I'm doubtful that a deal will be mature enough for SIGNING by the end of it.
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