Was Snowden a Russian Asset? (ie did he communicate with Russian intelligence before fleeing the US)
Was Snowden a Russian Asset? (ie did he communicate with Russian intelligence before fleeing the US)
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This will resolve YES or NO if and when compelling evidence comes to light for or against this proposition. (Or otherwise will eventually resolve N/A)
The question is whether he was a Russian Asset, but to operationalize it, if evidence comes to light that he did or did not communicate with Russian Intelligence before he left the US (or depending on the nature of the communication, possibly afterwards as well) that will presumptively be enough to resolve the question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.