Today Kim Dotcom posted on X suggesting that Ukrainians fighting Russia's invasion are Nazis. Dotcom has previously parroted Kremlin propaganda, touted Russia Today as a credible news source, and has told several lies over the course of Russia's invasion. Will Dotcom be exposed as a Kremlin agent or puppet? Question resolution after proof provided in either direction, but preliminary closing date Jan 2025.

(More context: https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-pro-russian-falsehoods-kim-dotcom/6743375.html)

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What would proof of him not being a Russian agent look like?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@Arky we don't know what proof looks like until we have it?

predicts NO

@Lorelai I meant there's really no way to prove conclusively that he's not a Russian agent. If no evidence of him being a Russian agent emerges by the end of the year, would that resolve this market to NO?

predicts YES

@Arky no it wouldn't – I'll extend the market. There needs to be proof that he isn't

predicts NO

@Lorelai What would be an example of evidence that proves Kim Dotcom is not a Russian agent?

@Lorelai lol then that would make this a highly asymmetrical market that would most likely get extended in perpetuity.

Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. It's shoddy epistemics and prediction setup to extend the market until one side has to disprove the claim, especially since nobody in the US would be considered 'credible and official' and motivated enough to disprove the claim, and you presumably would be skeptical of a Russian source disproving it.

predicts YES

@Maniuser I don't consider a russian source proof, no. don't bet on it if you don't like it?

@Lorelai So this is a completely pointless market

predicts YES

@Creagle no, if there's proof in either direction it will be resolved. But if you consider it pointless feel free to not participate. Have a nice day!

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