Will superforecasters aggregated outperform Manifold in 2023 ACX prediction contest?
43
389
Ṁ3.7KṀ790
resolved Mar 5
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/who-predicted-2022
Jan 24, 12:46am: Will superforecasters' aggregated outperform Manifold in 2023 ACX prediction contest? → Will superforecasters aggregated outperform Manifold in 2023 ACX prediction contest?
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ193 | |
| 2 | Ṁ63 | |
| 3 | Ṁ57 | |
| 4 | Ṁ57 | |
| 5 | Ṁ56 |
Sort by:
@SemioticRivalry Yea we have emailed each other a few times this week, I'll email him at a reasonable time today, not at 6am ET lol.
More related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?
54% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
68% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
67% chance
Which strategy will get the best Brier Score on the 2024 ACX prediction contest?
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
39% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
50% chance
Will Manifold Markets outlive PredictionBook?
91% chance
Will any of the events in the ACX 2023 prediction contest occur before February 1st?
62% chance
Will Brier Fox Forecast be more popular than Manifold Markets by the end of 2024?
15% chance
Will Manifold surpass Metaculus in DAUs by 2025?
77% chance