Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Republican primaries?
6
1kṀ4202028
80%
JD Vance
62%
Marco Rubio
54%
Ron DeSantis
54%
Nikki Haley
54%
Donald Trump Jr.
50%
Glenn Youngkin
42%
Ted Cruz
42%
Vivek Ramaswamy
38%
Tim Scott
For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%. In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were:
2024: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley
2020: Donald Trump
2016: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul
2012: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann
2008: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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