Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Kurdistan becomes a recognized independent state by December 31, 2029. Recognition requires that Kurdistan is admitted as a member state of the United Nations or receives formal diplomatic recognition from at least 50 countries, whichever occurs first. The market resolves NO if neither condition is met by the deadline.

Background

The Kurdistan Region (KRI) is a semi-autonomous federal region of Iraq comprising four Kurdish-majority governorates in northern Iraq. In a 2017 referendum, more than 92 percent of voters endorsed independence, but Iraq's Supreme Federal Court ruled that no Iraqi province was allowed to secede in order to preserve the unity of Iraq.

A general lack of unified political will to create an independent state indicates that a Kurdish state is highly unlikely to appear in the near future, at least outside of Iraqi Kurdistan. The virtually unanimous opposition of the international community prevented Kurdish president Masoud Barzani from proclaiming independence. The United States, the principal ally of the Iraqi Kurds, refused to back the referendum, prioritising the territorial integrity of Iraq. Baghdad deemed the referendum illegal, and neighbouring Turkey and Iran, worried about the repercussions on their own Kurdish minorities, strongly opposed Kurdish independence.

Considerations

An independent Kurdistan would be landlocked, with its international trade needing to flow through its neighboring countries, which have historically been opposed to Kurdish independence and would likely lack goodwill toward the nascent state. Since the failed 2017 bid at complete independence from Baghdad, there has been a gradual but consistent erosion of self-governance in the KRI. According to a 2024 report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Kurdistan Region's autonomy "hangs in the balance" due to several punitive measures imposed against it by the government of Iraq.